POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
Location:
41.4N
-71.6W
Maximum Sustained Winds:
40 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure:
998 mb
Moving:
NE OR 50 DEGREES at
28 MPH
THE CENTER OF
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA IS:
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF NEW YORK CITY
FIVE DAY TRACK - NHC
FLOATER SATELLITE - NOAA
LIKELY ARRIVAL OF 34 KT+ WINDS - NHC
WILMINGTON, NC RADAR - NWS
NHC
ADVISORIES
000
WTNT34 KNHC 160233
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2023
...SEAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 49.3W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 49.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward
speed is expected overnight and Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Sean is expected to dissipate into an
open trough by Monday night or Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Berg
000
WTNT44 KNHC 160233
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2023
A few showers and thunderstorms continue to pulse in association
with Sean, but the activity can no longer be considered organized
or persistent. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have either
been T1.0 or Too Weak to Classify for the past 18 hours, and as a
result, Sean has degenerated into a remnant low. Maximum winds are
estimated to be 25 kt and are expected to gradually weaken during
the next day or so. The remnant low is forecast to turn westward
overnight, and global models indicate that the circulation should
open up into a trough by 36 hours, if not sooner. The remnant
trough is likely to pass near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands around midweek.
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 18.2N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/1200Z 18.4N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/0000Z 18.7N 53.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
000
WTNT24 KNHC 160232
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023
0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 49.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 49.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 48.7W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.4N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 49.3W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000 FONT14 KNHC 160233 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
000 WTNT84 KNHC 222045 TCVAT4 HAROLD WATCH/WARNING ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092023 445 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2023 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAROLD CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD GRIDS. TXZ231-232-240>247-250-251-254-342>347-351-353>355-442-443-447-451- 454-455-222145- /O.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2023 $$ TXZ335-336-436-222145- /O.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2023 $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...HGX...
000 FKNT24 KNHC 160233 TCANT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2023 TC ADVISORY DTG: 20231016/0300Z TCAC: KNHC TC: SEAN ADVISORY NR: 2023/021 OBS PSN: 16/0300Z N1812 W04918 MOV: WNW 10KT INTST CHANGE: NC C: 1011HPA MAX WIND: 025KT FCST PSN +3 HR: 16/0600Z N1815 W04952 FCST MAX WIND +3 HR: 025KT FCST PSN +9 HR: 16/1200Z N1824 W05100 FCST MAX WIND +9 HR: 025KT FCST PSN +15 HR: 16/1800Z N1832 W05224 FCST MAX WIND +15 HR: 025KT FCST PSN +21 HR: 17/0000Z N1842 W05348 FCST MAX WIND +21 HR: 020KT FCST PSN +27 HR: 17/0600Z N//// W///// FCST MAX WIND +27 HR: ///KT RMK: THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000... 0600...1200...AND 1800Z. NXT MSG: NO MSG EXP $$
000
WTCA44 TJSJ 160347
TCPSP4
BOLETÃN
Ciclón Pos-Tropical Sean Advertencia Número 21
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL192023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
1100 PM AST domingo 15 de octubre de 2023
...SEAN SE CONVIERTE EN UN REMANENTE DE BAJA PRESIÃN...
...ESTA ES LA ÃLTIMA ADVERTENCIA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÃN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÃN...18.2N 49.3O
ALREDEDOR DE 905 MI...1455 KM E DEL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO
VIENTOS MÃXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 285 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESIÃN CENTRAL MÃNIMA...1011 MB...29.86 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
DISCUSIÃN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), el centro del Ciclón Pos-Tropical Sean
estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 18.2 norte, longitud 49.3
oeste. El ciclón pos-tropical se está moviendo hacia el oeste-
noroeste a cerca de 12 mph (19 km/h). Se espera un giro hacia el
oeste con un aumento en la velocidad de traslación durante la noche
y el lunes en la mañana.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 30 mph (45 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un debilitamiento y se espera que
Sean se disipe en una vaguada el lunes en la noche o el martes.
La presión central mÃnima estimada es de 1011 milibares (29.86
pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Ninguno
PRÃXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Esta es la última advertencia pública emitida por el Centro Nacional
de Huracanes sobre este sistema. Se puede encontrar información
adicional sobre este sistema en los Pronósticos de Alta Mar emitidos
por el Servicio Nacional de MeteorologÃa, bajo el encabezado
NFDHSFAT1 de AWIPS, encabezado FZNT01 de la OMM, y en lÃnea en
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Pronosticador Berg
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